PPT-Decision Analysis 2

Decision Analysis 2 Decision Analysis Effective decisionmaking requires that we understand The nature of the decision that must be made The values goals and objectives that are relevant to the decision problem. Business Roundtable. J. Robert Brown, Jr.. Chauncey Wilson Memorial Research Professor of Law. Director, Corporate & Commercial Law Program. University of Denver Sturm College of Law. Business Roundtable as a . Alternatives and States of Nature. Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes. Payoff Matrix. Decision Trees. Utility Functions. Decisions under Uncertainty. Decisions under Risk. Decision Analysis - Payoff Tables. A . decision tree. is a graphical representation of every possible sequence of decision and random outcomes (states of nature) that can occur within a given decision making problem.. A decision tree is composed of a collection of nodes (represented by circles and squares) interconnected by branches (represented by lines).. Management science uses a scientific approach for solving management problems. It is used in a variety of organizations to solve many different types of problems . It encompasses a logical mathematical approach to problem solving. SYSTEMS. Decision Support Software. Reasons for the growth of decision-making information systems. People need to analyze large amounts of information. People must make decisions quickly. People must apply sophisticated analysis techniques, such as modeling and forecasting, to make good decisions. Introduction to Decision Analysis. Models help managers gain insight and understanding, but they can’t make decisions.. Decision making often remains a difficult task due to:. Uncertainty regarding the future. Facilitated by:. CMA Enterprise Incorporated. Davie, Florida. Any other reproduction, resale or redistribution is strictly prohibited without the written consent of a CMA Enterprise Incorporated or Breakthru Institute representative. . Decision Trees and Decision Tables 2 Decision Trees and Decision Tables Often our problem solutions require decisions to be made according to two or more conditions or combinations of conditions Decision trees represent such decision as a the Leaky Competing Accumulator Model. Psychology 209. March 4, 2013. Is the rectangle longer toward the northwest or longer toward the northeast?. Longer toward the Northeast!. 2.00”. 1.99”. A Classical Model of Decision Making:. It has 4 phases.. 1.Action or acts.. 2.State of nature or events or outcome.. 3.Pay off and pay off table or pay off matrix.. Decision. A decision problem may be represented by tree diagram. Decision making problems deals with the selection of single act from a set of acts.. It is used in a variety of organizations to solve many different types of problems . It encompasses a logical mathematical approach to problem solving. Mathematical tools have been used for thousands of years. Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes. Payoff Matrix. Decision Trees. Utility Functions. Decisions under Uncertainty. Decisions under Risk. Decision Analysis - Payoff Tables. Case Problem - (A) p. 38. Decision Analysis - Payoff Tables. 1. ERiMA. : . Envisioning Risk Models for Assessment of AI-based applications.. 2. Dr Huma Samin. 1. Post Doctoral Research Associate Computer Science. Durham University, UK. huma.samin@durham.ac.uk.  . L. . Robin Keller*, Jay Simon**. * . University of California, Irvine, . USA. President. , INFORMS (INFORMS.org). ** Defense Resources Management Institute, USA.  . 11TH . International Workshop on Operations .