PDF-EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE

1 ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2 0 1 5 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th century . Chris Landsea National Hurricane Center. March 2010. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. How does NHC analyze and forecast hurricanes?. How do the forecasters blend the various (surface . obs. 1 ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2 0 1 5 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th century . Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu Project Sponsors: Research Scientist Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science 1 Forecast Parameter Media Representative, (970-491-2658) is Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu Research Scientist Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science For hindcast. (seasonal mean). CPC/NCEP/NOAA. Jan 2011. Forecast & observation data. Assessment of the CFSv2 seasonal . forecasts. Compare the forecast correlation skill, . Rmse. , and Standard deviation from CFSv2 & CFSv1(current version). Hurricanes. What is a hurricane?. A hurricane is a huge storm! It can be up to 600 miles across and have strong winds . increase . inward and upward at speeds of 75 to 200 mph. Each hurricane usually lasts for over a week, moving 10-20 miles per hour over the open ocean. Hurricanes gather heat and energy through contact with warm ocean waters. Evaporation from the seawater increases their power. Hurricanes rotate in a counter-clockwise direction around an . The North Atlantic Oscillation’s (NAO) Impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Overview. • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). • Data. • Methods. . ◦. Univariate. Statistics. . ◦ Bivariate Statistics. Extended Metaphor An extended metaphor is a  metaphor  that unfolds across multiple lines or even paragraphs of a text, making use of multiple interrelated metaphors within an overarching one. Definition of Extended Metaphor 2 surface temperatures steadily took its toll on Jova and the cyclone rapidly weakened to a tropical storm late on 22 September about 350 n mi east-northeast of Hilo. Jova became a tropical depressio Frank . Revitte. National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office. New Orleans/Baton Rouge. “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane”. “It has never flooded here before”. “I’ve been through Katrina and Gustav, this is nothing”. Maj John McCrory . Louisiana Wing Director of Safety. Hurricane Preparedness. What to do to prepare for an approaching Hurricane.. What is your role in protecting yourself, your family and Civil Air Patrol resources you are responsible for?. Fred . Toepfer. . March . 4, 2015. HFIP at the 5 Year Point. 2. HFIP Motivation. Decrease Evacuations. Increase . forecast . accuracy, . especially . at longer lead . times. especially . during periods of rapid intensity changes; . Techniques. https://africanswift.org/. Project Aims. Significant. . improvements in weather forecasts in Africa. , . and the tropics, from hourly to seasonal timescales.. Build . capability. . among . 2007 Forecast Verification. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2008. James L. Franklin. NHC/TPC. Summary: Atlantic Track. OFCL track errors set records for accuracy from 36-96 . h. . Errors continue their downward trends, although skill has been flat for several years..