PDF-EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE

1 ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2 0 1 5 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th century . 1 ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2 0 1 5 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th century . Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu Project Sponsors: Research Scientist Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science 1 Forecast Parameter Weather Forecasting. Ross A. . Lazear. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult?. •. Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter. -Has. a bumpy surface. -Surrounded. by 40-km deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time. Media Representative, (970-491-2658) is Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu Research Scientist Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science For Dr. Louis W. . Uccellini. Director, National Weather Service. NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather . Services. July 13, 2016 – Congressional Briefing. Value of . Weekly to Seasonal Predictions. Huug van den Dool (CPC). CPC, June 23, 2011/ Oct 2011/ Feb 15, 2012. / UoMDMay,2,2012/ Aug2012/ Dec,12,2012/UoMDApril24,2013/. May22,2013/. 2. Assorted Underlying Issues. Which tools are used…. How do these tools work?. The North Atlantic Oscillation’s (NAO) Impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Overview. • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). • Data. • Methods. . ◦. Univariate. Statistics. . ◦ Bivariate Statistics. Frank . Revitte. National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office. New Orleans/Baton Rouge. “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane”. “It has never flooded here before”. “I’ve been through Katrina and Gustav, this is nothing”. . Frank . Revitte. National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office. New Orleans/Baton Rouge. 2017 Seasonal Recap. Above normal activity. 17 Total Named Storms. 7. Tropical Storms. 4. Hurricanes . Maj John McCrory . Louisiana Wing Director of Safety. Hurricane Preparedness. What to do to prepare for an approaching Hurricane.. What is your role in protecting yourself, your family and Civil Air Patrol resources you are responsible for?. Sub-seasonal Update . Bohar. Singh. Sub-seasonal climate drivers: State of Climate . Cold anomalies in eastern and central Pacific become weaker as compared to previous month. Warm anomalies around Maritime continent expanded eastward in the west Pacific Ocean. Mark DeMaria. National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL. GFDL Hurricane Science Symposium. May 2, 2017. 1. Outline. 2. 1954-1975 – . Barotropic. and statistical track . forecast model era. Fred . Toepfer. . March . 4, 2015. HFIP at the 5 Year Point. 2. HFIP Motivation. Decrease Evacuations. Increase . forecast . accuracy, . especially . at longer lead . times. especially . during periods of rapid intensity changes; . 2007 Forecast Verification. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2008. James L. Franklin. NHC/TPC. Summary: Atlantic Track. OFCL track errors set records for accuracy from 36-96 . h. . Errors continue their downward trends, although skill has been flat for several years..