PDF-EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LA

Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Email amieatmoscolostateedu Project Sponsors Research Scientist Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science 1 Forecast Parameter. Developed over the course of sev eral years in consultation with emergency managers broadcast meteorologists and others this new map will show eographical areas where inundation from storm surge could occur How high above ground the water could reac 1 ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2 0 1 5 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th century . 1 ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2 0 1 5 We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20 th century . Dr. Louis W. . Uccellini. Director, National Weather Service. NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather . Services. July 13, 2016 – Congressional Briefing. Value of . Weekly to Seasonal Predictions. Precipitation . Forecasting, Applications & Justification. Jeanine Jones , California Department of Water Resources. “While everybody talked about the weather, nobody seemed to do anything about it” – Charles Warner, misattributed to Mark Twain. Hurricanes. What is a hurricane?. A hurricane is a huge storm! It can be up to 600 miles across and have strong winds . increase . inward and upward at speeds of 75 to 200 mph. Each hurricane usually lasts for over a week, moving 10-20 miles per hour over the open ocean. Hurricanes gather heat and energy through contact with warm ocean waters. Evaporation from the seawater increases their power. Hurricanes rotate in a counter-clockwise direction around an . Huug van den Dool (CPC). CPC, June 23, 2011/ Oct 2011/ Feb 15, 2012. / UoMDMay,2,2012/ Aug2012/ Dec,12,2012/UoMDApril24,2013/. May22,2013/. 2. Assorted Underlying Issues. Which tools are used…. How do these tools work?. The North Atlantic Oscillation’s (NAO) Impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Overview. • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). • Data. • Methods. . ◦. Univariate. Statistics. . ◦ Bivariate Statistics. Extended Metaphor An extended metaphor is a  metaphor  that unfolds across multiple lines or even paragraphs of a text, making use of multiple interrelated metaphors within an overarching one. Definition of Extended Metaphor Frank . Revitte. National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office. New Orleans/Baton Rouge. “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane”. “It has never flooded here before”. “I’ve been through Katrina and Gustav, this is nothing”. Maj John McCrory . Louisiana Wing Director of Safety. Hurricane Preparedness. What to do to prepare for an approaching Hurricane.. What is your role in protecting yourself, your family and Civil Air Patrol resources you are responsible for?. Volume 6 , No. 4 128 QiaoSheng DONG University of Cambridge , U K E mail : dongqiaosheng@gmail.com Abstract : When considering the cause of diseases, the Hippocratic authors paid much attention to th Mark DeMaria. National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL. GFDL Hurricane Science Symposium. May 2, 2017. 1. Outline. 2. 1954-1975 – . Barotropic. and statistical track . forecast model era. 2007 Forecast Verification. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2008. James L. Franklin. NHC/TPC. Summary: Atlantic Track. OFCL track errors set records for accuracy from 36-96 . h. . Errors continue their downward trends, although skill has been flat for several years..