PPT-Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability: Advances and Challenges

Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology In collaboration with Fuqing Zhang Atlantic Tropical Cyclone F orecasting Some successes and some failures Some Issues. Satellite cl oud imageries are used along with other meteorological features to estimate t he intensities and the wind speed associated with these intense systems The satellite cl oud configurations expressed by T numbers have unique relati onship w Weather Systems. The image above shows a . midlatitude. cyclone that was called the “1993 . Superstorm. ” and “The Storm of the Century.” This mid-March cyclone brought blizzard conditions to the E. coast. Mid-latitude cyclones are easy to identify . Objective Methods for Tropical Cyclone Center . Fixing and Eye Detection. Robert DeMaria. 1. , . John Knaff. 2. ,. . John . Dostalek. 1. , . and . Galina Chirokova. 1 . (1) CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, . vs. . Remote effect. Sourav Taraphdar. 1. Collaborators. :. 1. . Fuqing. Zhang, . Yonghui. . Weng. , Michael (Yue) Ying. 2. . Shuguang. Wang. 3. Juan . Fang. 1. Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, . Presentation to AMS Board on Enterprise Communications. September 2012. ESPC Overview. Introduction. ESPC is an . interagency collaboration . between DoD (Navy, Air Force), NOAA, DoE, NASA, and NSF for coordination of research to operations for an earth system analysis and extended range prediction capability. . and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Deduced from High-Resolution Stochastic Ensembles. Falko. . Judt. and . Shuyi. S. Chen. Wei-Ting Fang. 2017.03.21. Outline. Introduction. Stochastic . Objectives. To better understand variability in eastern upwelling regions and the Gulf of Guinea. To enhance climate modelling and prediction capabilities. Improve understanding of marine ecosystems for better prediction and management. Madeline Frank. EAS 4480. Course Project. April 2016. Goals. 4 Ocean Basins:. . North Atlantic, East Pacific, West Pacific, . Indian. Determine the relationship (if any) between active and/or inactive tropical cyclone years among 4 Ocean basins. Sean PF Casey. 1,2. , Ross N. Hoffman. 1,2. , Robert Atlas. 2. , and Lidia Cucurull. 2. 1. Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/University of Miami. 2. NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. -1- Hurricane Nora 1-9 October 2003 Lixion. A. Avila National Hurricane Center 4 November 2003 a.Synoptic History Nora developed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 13 Septe 2 surface temperatures steadily took its toll on Jova and the cyclone rapidly weakened to a tropical storm late on 22 September about 350 n mi east-northeast of Hilo. Jova became a tropical depressio 2223 May 2021 3 August 2021 NASA/TERRA MODERATE RESOLUTION IMAGING SPECTRORADIOMETER MODIS IMAGERY OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA AT 1507 UTC 22 MAY 2021 IMAGE COURTESY OF NASA EOSDIS WORLDVIEW Ana origina Kerry Emanuel. Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power Dissipation. (Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter). Kerry . Emanuel and Sai Ravela. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Risk Assessment Methods. Methods based on hurricane history. Numerical Simulations. Downscaling Approaches. Issues with Historically Based Risk Assessment.