on Burn Severity in the Happy Camp Complex Forest Fire Student Dan Belle Advisor Dr Alan Taylor GEOG596A 11 May 2015 Presentation Overview Background Goals and Objectives Data and Data Availability MTBS ID: 681269
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Slide1
Effects of Insect Damage and Previous Fires on Burn Severity in the Happy Camp Complex Forest Fire
Student: Dan Belle
Advisor: Dr. Alan Taylor
GEOG596A
11 May 2015Slide2
Presentation Overview
Background
Goals and Objectives
Data and Data Availability (MTBS)Initial AnalysisInitial Analysis Results and DiscussionProposed Future AnalysisSlide3
Forest Fire Background
Forrest fires are complex – several determinants of behavior
Chiefly Fuels, Topography, Weather
Many variables influence those determinants:Wind (speed/direction)
Humidity
Previous Fires
AspectElevationSlopeCover variabilityBurn PeriodAnd the list goes on…
Happy Camp Fire
Credit: Kari GreerSlide4
Old Fires and Insects
Previous fires can influence the severity and distribution of new ones
Can alter vegetation patterns and species
Areas burned at high severity more prone to high severity burnsEffect diminishes with time
Previously burned areas may exclude
reburns
Effects can be masked/ overridden by other variables (e.g., severe weather)Effect of insect damage less clearSeems like it would increase flammability, but…Some studies find no significant linkOther studies suggest damaged areas are
less prone to severe burns
Beetle Killed Conifers
Source: USGSSlide5
Background: Happy Camp Complex Fire
Relatively large fire in Klamath National Forest (Northern CA)
Ignited by lightning
End of dry season, compounded by droughtBurned ~135k acres, Aug-Oct 2014Predominantly mixed conifer forests
Area previously burned in 1987, 1999 (not including small fires)
Previous insect damage as identified by USDA aerial surveys
Fire From Collins Baldy
Lookout 9/5/2014
Credit: Joshua VealSlide6
Data AvailabilitySlide7Slide8
Project Goals and Objectives
Examine influence of previous fires and insect damage on Happy Camp fire severity
Identify and acknowledge influence of other determinants
Use visuals, tables to conduct analysis, express resultsIntended audience is general – intend to keep language and techniques approachable
End state is a published paper, rather than a presentationSlide9
MTBS Data Described
Multi year, multi agency project (1984-present)
Provides consistent 30m resolution burn severity
Analysis uses pre-fire and post-fire Landsat imagesDifferenced Normalized Burn Ratio (
dNBR
)
Measures change in specific bandsUsed to produced severity raster
Source: USGSSlide10Slide11
Initial Analysis Methodology
Analysis method based on paper by van
Wagtendonk
(2011)Clipped previous fire severity rasters and Happy Camp fire severity raster to equal sized areasUsed raster algebra to create further
rasters
(old fire data) severity categories within happy camp severity categories
Clipped Happy Camp Severity rasters by insect damage zonesReport results in tablesSlide12
Result Tables
Table at right suggest correlation between high severity old burns and high severity new burns
Insect table (below) inconclusive by itselfSlide13
Proportions of Burn Severity Categories
Numbers of acres in tables helpful, but graphics are more clear
Created pie charts from Happy Camp severity data
Happy Camp as a wholeHappy Camp severity data with boundaries of old firesHappy Camp severity data within each insect damage category
Useful for visualizing which regions burned more or less severely than overall fireSlide14
Initial ResultsSlide15
ResultsSlide16
Results of Initial Analysis
Many variables at play – no “smoking gun”
Other variables (weather, vegetation, suppression efforts) may have masked effects of fire, insects
Effects of previous fires strong in some areas, weak in othersLiterature supports positive correlation Effects of insect damage weak and inconclusive
Literature supports nonexistent of negative correlation
Is
dNBR accurate in reading insect damaged areas?Slide17
Further Steps & Timeline
Examine other variables (i.e., terrain, fuel, weather)
Why did areas with similar fire history burn so differently?
Perform analysis to get at causesCould incorporate regression analysis – not currently planned
Going forward, will work to improve graphics/visuals, fire
narrative
Proposed TimelineNow – June: Continue fire research, analyze other causesJune-July: Refine paperAugust: Submit paper for publicationSlide18
References
Bourbonnais, M. L., Nelson, T. A., &
Wulder
, M. A. (2014). Geographic analysis of the impacts of mountain pine beetle infestation on forest fire ignition. The Canadian Geographer / Le
Géographe
Canadien
, 58(2), 188-202
.
Eidenshink
, J.,
Schwind
, B., Brewer, K., Zhu, Z., Quayle, B., & Howard, S. (2007). A project for monitoring trends in burn severity. Fire Ecology, 3(1), 3-21. doi:10.4996/fireecology.0301003
Hoffman, C. M., Linn, R., Parsons, R.,
Sieg
, C., &
Winterkamp
, J. (2015). Modeling spatial and temporal dynamics of wind flow and potential fire behavior following a mountain pine beetle outbreak in a
lodgepole
pine forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 204, 79-93.
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity. (2015).
MTBS
[Data File]. Retrieved from http://www.mtbs.gov/
National Wildfire Coordinating Group. (2014). Happy Camp Complex. Retrieved from http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4078/
Odion
, D. C., Moritz, M. A., &
DellaSala
, D. A. (2010). Alternative community states maintained by fire in the Klamath Mountains, USA. The Journal of Ecology, 98(1), 96.
Simard, M.,
Romme
, W. H., Griffin, J. M., & Turner, M. G. (2011). Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in
lodgepole
pine forests? Ecological Monographs, 81(1), 3-24.
Taylor, A. H., & Skinner, C. N. (1998). Fire history and landscape dynamics in a late-successional reserve, Klamath Mountains, California, USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 111(2), 285-301.
Thompson, J. R., & Spies, T. A. (2010). Factors associated with crown damage following recurring mixed-severity wildfires and post-fire management in southwestern Oregon. Landscape Ecology, 25(5), 775-789.
Thompson, J. R., Spies, T. A., &
Ganio
, L. M. (2007).
Reburn
severity in managed and unmanaged vegetation in a large wildfire. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(25), 10743-10748.
United States Department of Agriculture. (2015).
IDS
[Data File]. Retrieved from http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/portal/Flex/IDS
United States Geological Survey. (2015)
Historic Fire Data
[Data File]. Retrieved from http://www.geomac.gov/
van
Wagtendonk
, K. (2011). Fires in Previously Burned Areas: Fire Severity and Vegetation Interactions in Yosemite National Park. Rethinking Protected Areas in a Changing World: Proceedings of the 2011 George Wright Society Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites, 356–362.
Weatherspoon, C.P., & Skinner, C.N. (1995). An Assessment of Factors Associated with Damage to Tree Crowns from the 1987 Wildfires in Northern California. Forest Science 41(3): 430-51.
United States Department of Agriculture. (2008).
CONUS Forest Type
[Data File]. Retrieved from http://data.fs.usda.gov/geodata/rastergateway/forest_type/index.phpSlide19
Acknowledgements
Dr. Alan TaylorSlide20
Questions
Night Fire Beyond Happy Camp